By the mid-2080s, the world's population is expected to increase by nearly 10.4 billion. statistics
0It took humanity 200,000 years to reach one billion and only 200 years to reach seven billion. We are still adding an extra 80 million each year and are headed towards 10 billion by mid-century.
The world’s population is more than three times larger than it was in the mid-twentieth century. The world’s population is expected to increase by nearly 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s.
This dramatic growth has been driven largely by increasing numbers of people surviving to reproductive age, the gradual increase in human lifespan, increasing urbanization, and accelerating migration. Major changes in fertility rate have accompanied this growth. These trends will have far-reaching implications for generations to come.
On 15 November 2022, the world’s population reached 8 billion people, a milestone in human development. While it took the global population 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion, it will take approximately 15 years—until 2037— for it to reach 9 billion, a sign that the overall growth rate of the global population is slowing. Yet levels of fertility remain high in some countries. Countries with the highest fertility levels tend to be those with the lowest income per capita. Global population growth has therefore over time become increasingly concentrated among the world’s poorest countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa.
China and India remain the two most populous countries of the world, both with more than 1 billion people, each representing nearly 18 percent of the world’s population, respectively. Around 2023, India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country, while China’s population is projected to decrease by 48 million, or around 2.7 per cent, between 2019 and 2050.
More than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa. Africa has the highest rate of population growth among major areas. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to double by 2050. A rapid population increase in Africa is anticipated even if there is a substantial reduction of fertility levels in the near future. Regardless of the uncertainty surrounding future trends in fertility in Africa, the large number of young people currently on the continent, who will reach adulthood in the coming years and have children of their own, ensures that the region will play a central role in shaping the size and distribution of the world’s population over the coming decades.
In sharp contrast, the populations of 61 countries or areas in the world are expected to decrease by 2050, of which 26 may see a reduction of at least ten per cent. Several countries are expected to see their populations decline by more than 15 per cent by 2050, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia, and Ukraine. Fertility in all European countries is now below the level required for full replacement of the population in the long run (around 2.1 children per woman), and in the majority of cases, fertility has been below the replacement level for several decades.
We can achieve a sustainable global population when communities, governments and organisations take action to enable people to choose smaller families through women’s empowerment and easy access to high quality education and family planning. By doing so, we can ensure that, in the future, everyone can have a decent standard of living on a healthy planet.
Population Matters is putting population on the global agenda, bringing the issue to an international audience through our campaigning, education and research.