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This document describes a machine learning task to predict a winner using card types chosen in a playthrough of the two player board game, 7 Wonders Duel. 82 features from matches on BoardGameArena.com, were reduced to 36 features dealing with card types. Four feature selection methods found the most important features to create the right model with nontest data. A logistic regression was chosen based on accuracy and interpretability. The process was repeated four more times with different variations of the game. Five logistic regressions predicted wins with a greater than 71.4% accuracy on nontest data and greater than 71.0% accuracy on test data. The stronger card types had higher coefficients in their logistic regression equations. This process can be used for future games including serious games to teach students various subjects including military concepts.

The stronger card types had higher coefficients from the logistic regression equation of the predictive model. This process can be used for future games including serious games to teach students various subjects including military concepts. The final predicting model for each game type showed the most powerful cards in each expansion combination.

Table 8: Hypothesis vs Findings
Top card hypothesis Top 3 card types
Standard Yellow Green, Red, Purple
Pantheon Green Green, Yellow, Red
Agora White Red, White, Blue
Both White White, Red, Black
All Data Yellow White, Red, Green

The final development of five logistic regressions with 10 or less features predicted the game winner with a greater than 71.4% accuracy on nontest data and greater than 71.0% accuracy on test data for all models. It is expected that these models would continue to show about 71% accuracy with any future predictions of similar data. No single card type proved to be overpowered but evidence was gained for those with the highest coefficients. This methodology could be used for game balance in future games to include educational games produced as serious games.


BGG Link:
https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/173346/7-wonders-duel


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