Well, it went from snow to 82 degrees within a week, and with cold weather ahead again in upstate NY, it was time to check on my one remaining hive - and what a surprise, SWARM CELLS ALREADY!!?? I seized the opportunity to split the layens hive and hope for the best - with the cold weather, I was hesitant. However, the bees picked for me with 5 queen cells including a capped one (they were splitting themselves either way). I just hope I caught it in time as a wild swarm right now would certainly have a low chance to make it!
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