14.000 Russian Soldiers KIA: Why Russia struggles so hard in Ukraine
1Okay,
so a lot of people are asking: Why is Russias army struggling so hard against Ukraines forces? I'd love to build a hypothesis based on data and crowdsourced intelligence based on three key factors:
1) Wrong intelligence assessments: Russia didn't expect NATO to step in so early and provide massive military aid. Their forces never had to fight an advanced army with heat seeking Javelins and Stingers hence they need to adapt to this situation rapidly and struggle to do so due to a top down command structure that doesn't give much room for real-time solutions on a unit level.
2) There has been sufficient intelligence that Putin doesn't trust the military, most of his generals and military commanders were recruited from FSB. FSB is an intelligence service that operates internally and externally - think about it as a mixture of NSA and CIA. My hypothesis: intelligence professionals are very good at data gathering and operations with Special Forces - less capable to lead an army that is laying siege on five cities at the same time with 100.000 men under their direct command. Hence they are making a lot of strategic mistakes in their supply line, the way they send in VDV paratroopers without sufficient CAS (close air support) etc.
3) Their war strategy on a unit level: Russian forces tend to not operate within combined arms units (Battle Groups), like a modern military normally is. Which means their tank columns are often not protected on the ground with sufficient infantry, advanced and scout units, don't have close air support and anti air capabilities making them very vulnerable against drones and ambushes.
I'd love to know your take on the situation