Erika.wmv
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So to break it down
Pineco explosion KO'ing Venusaur ~ likely to happen, probably 80%
Vapreon crit vs. Weezing ~ 13% (run is likely over)
Fearow Hyper Beam crit vs. Vaporeon ~ 5.4% (run lives)
Bellossom getting 2 consecutive Sleep Powders ~ 36%
Focus Band activation ~ 10% (nuuuuuuuu)
Getting the final sleep powder ~ 75%
Had Bellossom missed at least 1 sleep powder, I would have won this fight with over 90% win rate. This was after the already abysmal chance of getting past her Vaporeon 1v1
Math may not be exact but just know it's so unlikely to have this scenario occur