Path of Statistics - Misconceptions about Luck and RNG: Applying Mathematics To Drop Rate Estimates
211I've got a maths background, so lots of online discussion about RNG drives me up the wall. (Still sane, Exile?)
It's much harder to empirically test drop rates than players typically believe. Several common misconceptions stand in the way.
Here I address a few common points that are widely asserted about drop rates.
This is in no way me having a go at POE players who have done small sample size tests (like using 6553 Ancient Orbs on unique belts in Nemesis zones, or opening 20000 Stacked Decks). It's more about demonstrating the limitations of what you can tell about drop rates from these sorts of samples.
TL:DR - if you want to assert a drop rate, PLEASE present a 95% or 99.7% confidence interval with your figures.
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