The Asteroid That Will Destroy Us May Come Completely Unexpectedly. I'll Explain Why.
303The concept of a phantom asteroid approaching Earth from the direction of the sun isn't science fiction. In 2022, a study published in the Planetary Science Journal estimated that 58% of asteroids with orbital inclinations greater than 30% and an affilion of less than 1.2 2 AU could approach Earth undetected until just 30 days before a potential impact. The reason is geometric. An object orbiting close to the ecliptic plane but with a steep inclination crosses Earth's orbit at blind spots relative to the sun. While the probability of collision is low, detecting such objects is nearly impossible.
A real example is the asteroid that exploded over the skies of Chelabinsk on February 15th, 2013. On a sunny winter morning shortly after sunrise, a 20 m, about 65 ft asteroid weighing around 13,000 tons entered Earth's atmosphere over the Euro Mountains in Russia, traveling at a speed of over 18 km/s or about 40,000 mph.
It was the largest asteroid to strike Earth in more than a century, and its sudden appearance was due to its approach from the same direction as the sun. Could such an event happen again, perhaps even on a worse scale? Before diving into the main discussion, we'll start with a glimpse of what could happen in the near future.
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Credits: Ron Miller, Mark A. Garlick / MarkGarlick.com ,Elon Musk/SpaceX/ Flickr
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00:00 Intro
01:37 What could happen in the near future ( 2036)
09:44 Understanding implications
11:28 Asteroid 2019 OK Case Study
12:42 Dynamic simulations
14:04 Technological limitations
16:12 Implications of sudden impact
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