THE GUARDIAN VIEW ON THE EU’S OIL EMBARGO: RAMPING UP THE COST OF PUTIN’S WAR
0The Guardian view on the EU’s oil embargo: ramping up the cost of Putin’s war
In the lead up to this week’s European Union summit in Brussels. Germany’s economy minister and deputy chancellor. Robert Habeck. warned that unity over sanctions on Russia was “starting to crumble”. If that assessment was intended to galvanise EU leaders at a crucial moment. it appears to have just about done its job. The partial embargo on Russian oil imports agreed at the summit on Monday night constitutes a significant. if belated. ratcheting up of economic pressure on Vladimir Putin’s regime. After a month of negotiations between member states. objections from Hungary were finally overcome through a temporary exemption for oil transported through a Soviet era pipeline to central Europe. Given that Germany and Poland will forgo imports from this source. by the end of the year the embargo should cover over 90% of Russian oil supplies to Europe. The effect of the ban over time. and combined with other sanctions. will be to deprive Moscow of funds and means to prosecute a prolonged war of attrition that it did not anticipate having to fight. The EU’s foreign policy chief. Josep Borrell. was therefore justified in describing the oil embargo as a show of unity and a “landmark” agreement. An announcement of €9bn in economic aid to Ukraine was also welcome. although it should only be seen as a start. The Kyiv School of Economics has calculated that the war is causing about $4.5bn worth of damage to civilian infrastructure every week. The costs of postwar reconstruction could run into hundreds of billions of dollars. However. financing that colossal challenge is tomorrow’s task. In the shorter term – as it attempts to intensify the financial squeeze on Mr Putin – the west must give Ukraine the military assistance it needs to resist Russian forces. while continuing to avoid moves that risk escalating and widening the war. In May. Washington committed to a $40bn package to aid Ukraine’s war effort. and the supply of US weapons is accelerating – including vital artillery capability. European countries need to up the pace of their own contributions. as the Kremlin attempts to concentrate overwhelming force in the east and annexe new territory. But the US president. Joe Biden. was right this week to rule out sending long range missile systems to Ukraine which could be deployed to hit targets inside Russia. Moscow’s nuclear capability – and the threatening rhetoric intermittently deployed in relation to it – must necessarily inform the west’s strategic calculations. however enraging that may be. The goal. as Mr Putin’s appalling war of choice continues. must be that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian people are enabled to negotiate its end from a position of strength and dignity. If this is to be achieved. it will be through a combination of economic pressure on Moscow and military resistance. Russia’s armed forces are being steadily and damagingly depleted. even as incremental territorial gains are made. Around 1.000 tanks may have been lost on the battlefield. while two of Russia’s tank manufacturers have reportedly ceased production due to a lack of parts. Thus far. Mr Putin has shown total disregard for the human cost of his invasion. now measured in tens of thousands of lost lives. But the cumulative impact of sanctions can set logistical limits to his brutal revanchist ambitions. This week’s oil embargo is an important step in that direction.
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