FATE OF MARIUPOL ONE OF MANY FACTORS SET TO INFLUENCE THE NEW RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE
0Fate of Mariupol one of many factors set to influence the new Russian offensive
April 19. 2022 — 11.30am Save Log in. register or subscribe to save articles for later. Share Normal text sizeLarger text sizeVery large text size Four weeks ago. it appeared the Russians might be about to capture the Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Now. a month later. it once again appears that the Russian army may finally be on the cusp of capturing this defiant port city. It is the last major city in Russia’s southern conquest that is yet to fall. For the Ukrainians. Mariupol has symbolised the staunch resistance of their army against the Russians. The Battle of Mariupol has developed into a hellish. almost never ending fight where large numbers of lives are traded for small gains in the city. The citizens of Mariupol have paid a shocking price with the Russians accused of multiple atrocities. A damaged apartment building near the Illich steelworks in an area of Mariupol controlled by Russian backed separatists.Credit:AP Given the level of destruction wrought by the Russians. the city now has minimal military utility. It is a political objective. If the Russians do capture Mariupol. Putin and his military high command will claim it as a military success with the Russian people. But it will be a victory in name only because of the massive destruction and death toll it has entailed. The main importance of Mariupol now lies in the fact that it has absorbed large parts of the Russian army in the south. If the Russians capture the city. it would release these soldiers. their equipment. as well as the artillery. logistics and air force that supports them. to the new Russian offensive in the east. Thousands of Russian soldiers might become available to reinforce the new eastern Russian attacks across its 400 kilometre front. and which were preceded by dozens of Russian strikes across Ukraine over the weekend. If Mariupol falls. it will have an impact of Ukrainian morale. But. we should not overestimate this. As we have seen from the massacre at Bucha. and the near constant Russian bombardments of other cities in the south. east and northeast. such setbacks seem to only reinforce Ukrainian determination to defeat the Russian invader. The potential fall of Mariupol is but one of several variables that will influence the outcome of the new Russian offensives in the east. The key variable with Mariupol is how many Russian troops might be freed up by its fall. After weeks of tough urban fighting. the Russians will be in need of resupply and reinforcements. And some will need to remain in the city as a security force. Another variable is that the Ukrainians appear to have launched attacks in the vicinity of Kharkiv and Izyum. It is uncertain whether these are local spoiling attacks aimed at disrupting Russian preparations for further operations. or part of a wider Ukrainian counter offensive. Good tactical leaders are always looking for opportunities to disrupt the enemy’s plans. And good command environments nurture this. The Ukrainians have proved they have both in this war. So. these could just be local attacks. But we must not discount that these attacks might be part of a wider counter offensive by the Ukrainians. They understand better than anyone else that seizing the initiative from the Russians before they can launch a major offensive in the east would disrupt Russian strategy – and prevent Putin from having something to celebrate at his Victory Day commemoration on May 9. marking the surrender of Nazi Germany. Another variable in a potential Russian eastern offensive is logistics. For nearly two months we have seen how bad the Russian logistic system has performed. Hampered by too many combat units being supplied by too few logistic units. and Ukrainian attacks on Russian rear areas that target logistic convoys. the Russian campaign in the north was largely undone by this aspect of the war. Whether the Russians can improve this situation to supply the concentration of forces in the east is an important variable in the...
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