Game:

Fire Emblem: The Binding Blade (2002)

Duration: 2:37

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1

In broad strategical terms, this is a simple chapter, but because Matthew is weak and Hector is not very accurate, computing the expected turncount is cumbersome. Due to how long the explanation is, I am going to list the %s before I explain the strategy. There are multiple videos for the branching paths in this chapter, check the playlist to see them all.

The rough calculations for the expected turncount are

1.7%~ chance for a 6 turn
30.7%~ chance for a 7 turn
19.6%~ chance for a 8 turn

48%~ chance for a reset (43%~ turn 1 stat check, 2.9%~ turn 3 Archer isn't dead, 0.1% turn 6 Hector, 1.3% turn 7 Hector, 0.7% turn 8 Hector)

The conditional mean clear turn is 7.3~
The conditional mean reset turn is 1.4~

The reset penalty is 1.3~

The expected turncount is 8.6~

T1

Check Wire, he must have either 14 defense or 28 Hp
Check Thief, he must have 11 speed.

If both are not met, reset

Check Archer to the left of Hector. If he has 3 defense, break the wall with Matthew and Hector. If he has more than 3, then attack the wall with Hector's Hand Axe but only position Matthew next to the wall. This will cause the Archer to move since Matthew can be attacked within 2 turns, but the Soldier has no path so he stays still.

This then enables Hector to engage the Archer with a Hand Axe on T2 PP and EP which leads to the highest chance to kill this Archer on Turn 3 if he doesn't have 3 defense. If he has 3 defense, Matthew can 2RKO him reliably.

T2

If wall was broken, kill the Soldier with Wolf Beil Hector, then attack the Archer with Matthew.
If wall wasn't broken, attack the Archer with Hand Axe Hector

T3

If the Soldier is alive and the Archer is low enough to be finished by Matthew, move Hector 3 tiles left and finish the Soldier with a Hand Axe, then move Matthew 3 tiles left and finish the Archer.

If the Soldier is alive and the Archer is not low enough to be finished by Matthew, but can be finished by Hector, move Hector 2 tiles left and 1 tile down and attempt to finish the Archer with Wolf Beil. Then move Matthew above Hector.

If the Soldier is dead, move Matthew left of Hector and finish the Archer. If the Archer didn't die, move Hector left of the Archer and attempt to finish with Wolf Beil. If the Archer did die, move Hector as far left as possible.

Reset if the Archer is not dead, because he will start chugging Vulneraries and waste your time whilst the enemy thief is busy unlocking things. Whilst you can still get a clear, you have to give up stealing the Red Gem or the Lockpick (in this strat I am going for the lockpick)

T4

Have Matthew open the door and have Hector move next to him (as close to the boss as possible), and trade for the Vulnerary if he doesn't have it.

T5

Have Matthew head back towards the Red Gem room. Check the enemy Soldier, Archer, and Wire's stats to see if he needs to use the Vulnerary (Hector must have enough HP to survive Wire + Archer for the turn he reaches the boss, so assume everything hits and see if you need to potentially Vulnerary twice across 2 turns. If you don't conserve it for chapter 12)

Move Hector towards the boss. If he is not able to reach the boss in 2 turns using his max movement, stand on the pillar and equip the Hand Axe, unless the Soldier has 4 Speed, in which case, equip the Wolf Beil. If he can reach the boss in 2 turns, equip the Wolf Beil.

T6

Have Matthew steal the Lockpick. Move Hector towards the boss. If he can reach the boss and can't be 2HKO'd by Wire(full/near full hp Hector, 11 str Wire or 12 str and Hector procced def earlier), attack with the Wolf Beil. If he is 2HKO'd, then check again to make sure he isn't 2RKO'd by Wire + the Archer. If he is, use the Vulnerary. Make sure the Wolf Beil is equipped if you're going to be fighting the boss.

If he can't reach the boss, do the previous turn calc for total Vuln use across 2 turns assuming the remaining enemies hit you. If the Soldier is still alive, keep the Wolf Beil equipped. If the Soldier is dead, equip the Hand Axe.

A clear can occur here if Hector is healthy enough to safely attempt a 2RKO, or if he crits Wire on enemy phase.

T7

Have Matthew keep stealing the lockpick back. The thief will stay in the way so Matthew will be safe from the Soldier.

If Hector had previously engaged the boss, try to finish him off.
If Hector is just reaching the boss now, do the same checks listed on Turn 6 before you decide whether to engage him or vulnerary or wait with the Wolf Beil.

T8

Have Matthew steal the lockpick back. Try to finish the boss if he's still alive.

Pessimistic Mode is a hack by Doesnt on feuniverse that only allows player character stats to increase if there is a 90% chance of them having increased by the level you have just attained. It is close to 0% growths in reliability but brings stat growths into the equation to reward training units and to help compare units better than by using averages.

https://feuniverse.us/t/pessimistic-average-growths-patches/5134

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