Indian Defence Strategy - Forces, Potential and Procurement Disasters
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When debates arise on what the worlds strongest militaries are, attention tends to focus on the United States, PRC, and the Russian Federation. Less often mentioned is India...and I think that's a massive oversight.
With a rapidly growing economy, young demography, and a developing military industry, India's military evolution and strategy are likely to become ever more significant regional and global factors in the coming years.
So today, let's talk about it
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Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
At one point I refer to the Defence Acquisition Procedure 2016 - as per the slide, it was actually the Defence Procurement Procedure at the time. My reading was focused on the 2020 document, not 2016 as mentioned.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Relevant Reading (to be expanded)
Platform counts are generally MB2022 figures for sake of consistency with other episodes
TIV figures are per SIPRI
Defence Acquisition Procedure - 2020
https://www.ddpmod.gov.in/sites/default/files/DAP%202020%20%2011%20Nov%2021_0.pdf
Defence Procurement Procedure - 2016 highlights
https://www.scribd.com/document/312506309/DPP-2016-pdf
Defence Procurement Procedure - 2013
https://cgda.nic.in/pdf/DPP2013.pdf
Featured Comptroller and Auditor General Report (35 or 2014)
https://cag.gov.in/webroot/uploads/download_audit_report/2014/Union_Compliance_Defence_Army_Ordnance_Factories_35_2014.pdf
https://loksabhadocs.nic.in/Refinput/New_Reference_Notes/English/The%20Defence%20Procurement%20Procedure.pdf
Defence Procurement Manual 2016 (DRDO)
https://www.drdo.gov.in/sites/default/files/procurement-manuals-document/procurement-manual-2016.pdf
Reporting on India China clashes
https://www.wsj.com/articles/spiked-clubs-and-fists-at-14-000-feet-the-deadly-india-china-clash-11592418242
Reporting and Service Records
https://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Database/26707
https://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Database/36000
https://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Database/28708
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indian-air-force-group-captain-who-died-in-air-crash-cremated/articleshow/81570740.cms
Reporting on QR bloat
https://thewire.in/security/indian-military-qr-overreach-modernisation
US Force Demographics -2021
https://www.defenseculture.mil/Portals/90/Documents/Research/Publications/DEMORPT-2021_demographics_report-20230203.pdf
Dewey, McGerty, & Solanki (IISS) - Personnel vs. capital: the Indian defence budget
https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/military-balance/2023/04/indian-defence-budget/
Reporting on Agnipath
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/agnipath-scheme-aims-to-lower-forces-average-age-profile-by-4-5-years-3065496
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/govt-move-to-increase-retirement-age-slash-pensions-triggers-uproar-in-military-circles/articleshow/79046152.cms
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1833765
Reporting on Russian arms deliveries to India
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/russia-cannot-meet-arms-delivery-commitments-because-war-indian-air-force-says-2023-03-23/
Reporting on MiG-21
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/why-do-mig-21-crash-indian-air-force-fighter-aircraft-rajasthan-incident-pilots-death-1981575-2022-07-29
https://thewire.in/security/mig-21-squadron-retired-curtain-closing-iaf-most-abiding-fighter
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/why-are-mig-21s-still-in-service-in-india-despite-several-recent-crashes-2376381-2023-05-08
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/indian-air-force-mig-21-fleet-rajasthan-crash-b2342898.html
Reporting on QRs
https://thewire.in/security/indian-military-qr-overreach-modernisation
INSAS retiring
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/insas-rifles-to-retire-to-be-replaced-by-imported-weapons/articleshow/57479939.cms?from=mdr
Featured WB article on Indian growth
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/10/03/india-s-growth-to-remain-resilient-despite-global-challenges
Reporting on Indian defence budget
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/india-s-military-modernization-in-doubt-with-tiny-budget-rise
F404 order
https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/hal-orders-99-f404-engines-to-support-tejas-production/145127.article
For comparison: F-16 mishap and pilot loss statistics
https://www.safety.af.mil/Portals/71/documents/Aviation/Aircraft%20Statistics/F-16.pdf
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Indian Defence Strategy
00:01:20 — What Am I Talking About?
00:04:14 — History
00:07:59 — Strategic Situation
00:21:22 — Indian Armed Forces
00:27:29 — The Nuclear Program
00:36:21 — Strengths & Challenges
00:46:37 — Defence Industry & Procurement
00:50:14 — Why Procurement Goes Wrong?
01:10:15 — Conclusion
01:11:03 — Channel Update