Problem B: Punishing Infants - Mathematical Modeling, Simulation and Long-term Dynamics...
0Presented by:
Danielle Sitalo, DeBakey High School for Health Professions, Houston TX USA
Mihika Dusad, Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology, Alexandria VA USA
Sashwat Ravishankar, Jesuit High School, Portland OR USA
(Coach) Padmanabhan Seshaiyer, George Mason University, Alexandria VA USA
https://qubeshub.org/community/groups/simiode/expo
Abstract: In this work, the modeling, simulation and long-term dynamics of a real-world problem that addresses the intriguing phenomenon of infants displaying a tendency to punish anti-social behaviors and questions its implications in broader societal interactions.
This was one of the three problems of the SCUDEM VIII 2023 titled, “Problem B: Punishing Infants”. The solution methodology employed an innovative approach of adapting the SIR epidemiological model for infectious disease dynamics to introduce two models to study Problem B: one simple and another complex. The simpler model explores how likely the population is to pursue diplomatic action, like importing sanctions or sending humanitarian aid, or retributive (or unretractable) action, actively getting involved in the conflict. The complex model, however, splits diplomatic action into direct action, such as sanctions or public condemnation, and indirect action, such as diplomacy and supply donations.
A rigorous stability analysis of the model provides insights into long-term behavior. With hyperparameter tuning, using data from the Global Sanctions Database, refines the model’s accuracy. To validate the model’s applicability, real-world case studies are used, the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, in which the United States has pursued different courses of action. The findings offer an understanding of the diverse propensities and corrective actions, with implications for societal change and attitudes towards punishment.