Risk Management Mitigation: Towards Deescalation of the Russia Ukraine War. Realistic. Pessimistic.
We don't discuss morality and seek realism and objectivity. Sometimes only neurological psychopath, can be truly amoral and values free. Objective. We always felt that we could predict and understand Putin's mirrored mind and do believe we are more qualified to understand Putin's mind then any of the employees, on salary, with the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. Anyone ever watch “American Psycho”? Takes one to know or understand one or accurate predict what they may or may not do at the individual level of analysis. The three levels in IR Theory.
Both Russia and the world has to know, escalations beyond conventional armaments won't be tolerated. Also any weapons prohibited by international covenant must never be used: including anti-personnel cluster munitions or ammunitions designed to maximize suffering and misery upon combatants.
Optimistic Scenario for Ukraine (Opinion). Inflicting conventional strategic loss and defeat upon the military of the Russian Federation, driving the Russian Forces to the east of Ukraine's border (claim line) and retaking the area of the Crimea seized by Russian Federation in 2014.
This war will likely continue for a very long time and it is key to prevent some type of tactical or strategic level escalation.