SCUDEM IX 2024 Problem B: Narrative Influences—Applying a Double-SIR Model to Positive and...
0Day 2 | 1:00 PM–1:30 PM
"SCUDEM IX 2024 Problem B: Narrative Influences—Applying a Double-SIR Model to Positive and Negative Messaging"
Presented by:
Paul Chau, United States Military Academy, West Point NY USA
Alexander Bates, United States Military Academy, West Point NY USA
Abhimanyu Varma, United States Military Academy, West Point NY USA
https://qubeshub.org/community/groups/simiode/expo/2025
Abstract: Our group participated in SIMIODE’s SCUDEM IX 2024 challenge, in which we received the highest distinction (Outstanding Award). We selected Problem B: Narrative Influences. In this challenge, we examine a scenario in which two opposing informational movements, one employing positive persuasive messaging and the other negative dissuasive messaging, directly compete with each other to influence the behavior of a shared population. To determine which movement would be more successful, we propose a Double-SIR model that categorizes the spread of each informational movement into Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered stages. The solution to the nonlinear system of differential equations indicates that the positive persuasive movement is more than four times as effective at influencing behavior than the dissuade movement. Our conclusion has possible impacts on politics, public health, business, and other fields that rely on the distribution of public information. Improvements to our model will come from subsequent studies that can provide data for our scenario. In this presentation, we also address what challenged us most, our thought-process while creating our model, how we developed as students and critical thinkers, and how we hope to apply these lessons from SCUDEM to future ambitions.