Duration: 1:15

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OK, so maybe it wasn't that big of a failure as it looks. The odds of picking what he did in 4 cards, in any order, is 5.3%. Doing it right in order as he did, the "worst" permutation here, was just a 0.22% chance, really emphasizing, seemingly, a gigantic goof. (The picks were 7, 11, 24 and 8 in that order).

But when you think about it, what IS the odds of winning this game with 4 picks? I don't think it's better than 50%, but also I think it's better than 35%. As someone on my beloved Golden-Road.net pointed out in today's recap, it looks horrible because he basically did the best he possibly could with his 4 picks. I was still really surprised though to see him just back out of it - I mean, 4 picks is a LOT different from 3, too. I guess I'm sort of split on the issue, which is why the question mark's in the title. :)

For the record, I checked out http://tpirsummaries.8m.com ("Scorpz"'s great Price database) and found some stats:
-the last time there was a bailout of 4 cards was May 21st, 2008 (Season 36). AAAR was drawn, so it was in fact the correct decision that time.
-there were two bailouts last season with just 3 cards, for $3000. Both did not spell CAR.