Ukraine's counter-offensives - "Seven months from Kyiv to Kharkiv"
40,324A few weeks ago the Ukraine war was one of attrition and grinding advances, with Russian attacks in the Donbass an Ukrainian actions in Kherson both running into heavy defensive operations.
Then suddenly the Ukrainians launched their operation in Kharkiv Oblast, and within less than a fortnight, the Ukrainians would reclaim more territory than Russian forces had gained in months of bombardment and attrition-driven advances.
The war in Ukraine began with desperate defensive operations by the Ukrainian armed forces and population. Russian forces ended the first days pushing on the Ukrainian capital as the Ukrainians called for anyone capable of holding a rifle to stand up to defend the capital.
Now, it sees Ukrainian mobile units launching exploitation operations and forcing storied units like 1st Guards Tank Army to give up its positions at Izium rather than risk encirclement.
It's a heck of a story, one for the history books - and while it's still an evolving situation and data is thin, I thought it was worth asking three questions.
What the heck just happened, how did it happen, and what does that mean for the war to come?
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats & corrections:
On certainty:
As noted in the video, developing situations like this one are covered in just about the thickest layer fog that one can get. I have done my best using the sources available, but be prepared for some of the details to be contradicted in coming days and months.
On losses: The loss data used in this presentation is incorrectly labelled ' in 7 days.' The figures were updated prior to recording to cover more of the offensive period, but the 7 day marker war not.
On the use of Russian language in Ukraine:
At one point I talk about people in the liberated areas greeting Ukrainian troops in Russian. As this is a contentious point I wanted to make clear that I meant that in a majority of the videos I saw, Russian was used. Overall, the Oblast has a diverse linguistic environment, with the distribution between those who use Ukrainian and Russian as a first language varying between cities, towns etc. When I describe Kharkiv as an Oblast that was meant to have Russian sympathies, I mean that from the point of view of the Russian pre-war narrative, not as an objective appraisal.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 -- Opening Words
00:01:20 -- What Am I Covering?
00:01:52 -- Caveats
00:03:28 -- War By The Numbers
00:04:34 -- Inputs To Warfighting Capability
00:05:15 -- PHASE 1: To Kyiv And Back
00:05:25 -- Ukraine Before The Storm
00:07:00 -- Putin's Greatest Gamble
00:07:15 -- Critical Points: The Morale Factor
00:08:06 -- Critical Points: Rallying, Not Running
00:08:45 -- Critical Points: Resupply
00:09:26 -- Inputs & Trends
00:11:09 -- PHASE 2: The Grind
00:11:30 -- Advance In The Donbass
00:12:35 -- The Mobilisation Race
00:14:17 -- Ukrainian Fire Capabilities
00:15:15 -- Bakhmut & Pisky
00:17:53 -- The Kherson Telegraph
00:20:02 -- Clues On Unit Preparation
00:22:24 -- Southern Grind
00:27:28 -- Counter Offensive In The Donbas
00:30:06 -- Numbers & Scale
00:32:18 -- There Is No Panic
00:35:48 -- Confusion & Liberation
00:37:04 -- Rout Or Repositioning?
00:40:05 -- Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine
00:41:30 -- Exploitation, Insult & Injury
00:43:21 -- The Materiel Losses
00:46:12 -- A Story of 1GTA
00:51:02 -- Black Mark On The Russian Air Force
00:52:51 -- The Moral
00:57:18 -- Cracks In Russia?
01:00:26 -- The Manpower Problem
01:04:18 -- It's Not Over Yet
01:06:02 -- Pressure To Slow Down
01:07:02 -- Full Range Of Outcomes
01:08:12 -- Trends, Inputs & Outputs
01:10:19 -- The Winter Race
01:10:39 -- Russian Challenges
01:12:39 -- What Ukraine Requires?
01:16:25 -- Steel Over Blood
01:17:30 -- Final Perspective
01:18:45 -- The Political & Personal
01:21:46 -- Political Mobilisation
01:23:37 -- Conclusions
01:25:06 -- Channel Update
Further Reading/Listening:
Discussed article on Ukraine's prospects and needs in 2023
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html
Credit to Jomini of the West for the Kharkiv battle maps
https://twitter.com/JominiW?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
"All in!" The Ukrainian Offensives in Cherson and Charkiv - COL. Reisner
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9-NER8aFJ4&t
Visual loss confirmation compilations:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1504982786524041221
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop
No panic in Balakleya
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1567137106006245377
Russian TV discussing Ukrainian nationality and culture
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1570073307533156353