Polish military modernisation & why are they buying Korean tanks? - Featuring @TheChieftainsHatch
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In the video I'm pretty sure I say you get the Matilda Black Prince - it's actually the Excelsior, which is a decent tank capable of moving faster than walking speed (unlike my TOG II). You also get a bunch of in game currency, seven days of premium, and rental access to three solid vehicles - Tiger, Cromwell, and T-34/85. Only for new players though!
Importantly though - I want to stress the Chieftain is appearing in a personal capacity for his video segment, not as a rep of Wargaming or WoT.
Description:
Military modernisation is a complex task for any state. Individual system selection is usually based on competitive trials and an extensive review and evaluation process.
Usually.
Poland's plans are a little different - ordering what is basically an entire new army's worth of equipment (with more tanks than many other major European states combined) from the Republic of Korea without any sort of extended trials process.
In this episode, I ask the question of why a country in Europe would suddenly buy 1,000 tanks and hundreds of artillery pieces from a country half way around the world without so much as a trials program for the tank.
To comment on why Poland may have selected the K2 - I've invited back the Chieftain to give a tanker's expert view on the question.
Thank you as always for engaging with this study of defence economics in action, and we'll return to topics examining the Ukraine war next week.
Caveats:
There are two big caveats over this one.
The first is that announcements (as used as a key source here) doesn't always mean a program will deliver on time or as announced. 1,000 tanks ordered could become 500, delivery times might change etc. In fact, I'd go so far as to say they PROBABLY WILL change in many respects. This is a massive block of procurement that will challenge the heck out of any procurement office, let alone one that has not had to deal with this volume in recent years.
The second is that some statements are based on what you might call industry rumour, scuttlebutt, 'common knowledge' or what have you. I have tried to flag these where they come up.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Sources & Further Reading:
2021 platform figures are MB2021 as usual for the sake of consistency between episodes.
NATO expenditure figures are per NATO as normal:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_193983.htm
For PPP calculations - see detailed sourcing in my video on European Defence
Polish announcement on domestic production:
https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence/himars-and-k239-chunmoo-launchers-will-be-partially-produced-in-poland
RE: Technical modernisation plans
https://defence24.com/armed-forces/poland-to-spend-133-billion-on-modernization-of-the-armed-forces-new-f-16-to-be-ordered
Polish MoD publications:
https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence/defenceconcept-publication
Polish Abrams Procurement announcement example:
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/04/05/poland-signs-475-billion-abrams-tank-deal-as-russias-war-speeds-procurements/
"USAF plan to Divest to Invest is too risky" - Gen. John Michael Loh (ret.) (presented without either endorsement or critique)
https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2022/11/16/us-air-forces-divest-to-invest-plan-is-too-risky/
K9 production for Poland:
https://www.edrmagazine.eu/hanwha-rolls-out-24-k9pl-howitzers-for-poland
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — OPENING WORDS
00:02:06 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT
00:03:04 — SPONSOR: WORLD OF TANKS
00:04:32 — *THE POLISH MILITARY*
00:04:44 — A Cold War Force
00:06:23 — Between East and West
00:07:42 — The Military of 2021
00:08:20 — Designed with Purpose
00:10:32 — Poland's Competing Requirements
00:12:03 — The Polish DIB
00:13:13 — Borsuk & Krab
00:14:12 — *THE BUYING SPREE*
00:15:34 — K2
00:16:10 — K9
00:16:56 — K239
00:19:34 — FA-50
00:19:57 — A "Diverse" Fleet
00:20:54 — *HOW ARE THEY AFFORDING IT*
00:20:58 — Divest to Invest
00:22:34 — Budgets and Margins
00:24:03 — But it is Expensive
00:25:15 — *WHY KOREAN*
00:25:25 — An Extensive Order Book
00:26:12 — *ASSESSING K2*
00:26:22 — Guest: The Chieftain
00:36:55 — *THE INDUSTRIAL DIMENSION*
00:37:27 — More Than Just Speculations
00:38:32 — *KOREAN EXPORT STRATEGY*
00:38:49 — A Growing Player
00:39:29 — RoK Arms Exports (SIPRI TIV 2001-21)
00:39:53 — Competitive Advantages
00:41:21 — Playing to Their Strengths
00:42:20 — The Strategy
00:43:31 — *TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER & MARKET PENETRATION*
00:43:42 — S1: Imported Hardware
00:45:52 — S2: Domestic Production
00:48:05 — S3: Joint Development & Marketing
00:49:36 — *TARGET EUROPE*
00:49:54 — The European Market
00:50:57 — Entrenched Actors
00:51:43 — Evolving Tank Fleets
00:53:09 — A Third Competitor
00:55:20 — The Korean Offer
00:56:48 — CONCLUSIONS
00:57:50 — CHANNEL UPDATE