Ukrainian mobilisation & force generation - Featuring General Ben Hodges (Ret.)
33,696Last week we talked about Russian mobilisation and what it might mean for Russian force generation this year and next - and in particular, I noted the fact that it was possible that the problems were resolved and new combat power was generated.
In order to assess what impact that may have on the course of the war though Winter and into 2023, it's important to consider the Ukrainian side of the equation. The Ukrainians have been clear on their ambitions for next year, and set out what they believe their force requirements to be.
So the question becomes - what are those requirements and can they meet them.
In this episode, I explore that question, augmented by excerpts from an interview with the former commander of the US Army in Europe - LTG Ben Hodges (Ret.)
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats & Corrections:
As stated in the video - I cannot thank Ben Hodges enough for agreeing to participate in this video. He has not reviewed the content of the episode and all views expressed by me remain mine and mine alone.
At one point during this video I say that the US conducted a market survey of firms that could produce 16,000 shells per month - the correct figure is 12,000.
I also refer to the supply of aircraft by Bulgaria. that supply was reportedly of aircraft parts. bulgaria has denied supplying full aircraft from inventory and given it continues to fly its aircraft I have good reason to believe that statement
Sources:
Article by Valery Zaluzhnyi & Mykhailo Zabrodskyi
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html
US market survey of potential artillery producers:
https://sam.gov/opp/90113cce8c9a452a93fc5c7db958dac2/view
Credit to the regular OSINT channels who collect video and visual evidence of weapon systems, ammunition, and losses in Ukraine:
Oryx - https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop
Ukraine Weapons Tracker- https://twitter.com/UAWeapons?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
1995 artillery shell inventory - intended to illustrate the fact that the USSR was not the only power to stock up on shells
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-95-89/html/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-95-89.htm
CSIS piece on US weapons supply bottlenecks to Ukraine
https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-states-running-out-weapons-send-ukraine
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:40 — What Am I Covering?
00:03:14 — LTG Ben Hodges (Ret.)
00:04:16 — Ukraine Pre-February
00:05:29 — Wartime Evolution
00:07:28 — Force '23 - Ukraine's Military Objectives
00:08:37 — The Force Requirement
00:09:37 — Manpower vs Metal
00:10:46 — Interview pt.I: Ukrn Force Generation
00:11:34 — Interview pt.I: Answer
00:13:23 — Can It Be Done?
00:14:02 — Heavy Weapons
00:14:10 — Warsaw Standard
00:15:47 — Interview pt.II: Equipment
00:16:16 — Interview pt.II: Answer
00:18:51 — Nato Armour?
00:20:56 — Interview pt.III - Nato Armour?
00:21:20 — Interview pt.III - Answer
00:22:33 — Maintenance and Sustainment
00:23:33 — Russia's Own Advantages
00:24:28 — Interview pt.IV: Overcoming Maintenance and Sustainment Challenges
00:24:59 — Interview pt.IV: Answer
00:29:36 — Long Range Capabilities
00:32:12 — Munition & Shell Crisis
00:33:11 — Sustaining the Soviet(+) Systems
00:35:12 — Unconventional Sources
00:35:54 — Iran's Contribution?
00:37:20 — Nato Standard in Quantity
00:38:51 — Feeding The Guns
00:39:32 — Interview pt.V: Feeding The Guns
00:40:16 — Interview pt.V: Answer
00:44:02 — Case Study: US Industry Response
00:45:54 — Case Study: US Ammo Production
00:47:40 — Is Production up to the Task?
00:49:48 — Interview pt.VI: Is the West capable of sustaining Ukraine?
00:50:22 — Interview pt.VI: Answer
00:51:36 — The Force Generation Race
00:52:03 — What About the Russian Effort?
00:52:46 — Interview pt.VII: Russian and Ukrainian Mobilisation Assessment
00:53:10 — Interview pt.VII: Answer
00:54:17 — What About The Russian Effort? - Cont.
00:55:02 — Interview pt.VIII: Likely Failure Point for the Russian Military?
00:55:33 — Interview pt.VIII: Answer
00:59:57 — Who wins the Force Generation Race?
01:00:54 — Interview pt.IX: Final Reflections and Predictions
01:01:21 — Interview pt.IX: Answer
01:04:28 — Conclusions
01:06:42 — Channel Update