Escalation Strategy & Aid in Ukraine - How the West manages Russian nuclear threats and 'red lines'

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Perun

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Published on June 4, 2023 12:24:33 PM ● Video Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4

Duration: 1:10:22

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While not taking away from the immense sacrifices and efforts of the the involved forces, allied aid to Ukraine has been one of the decisive factors in the war so far.

Ukraine has constantly sought new capabilities, while Russian media and politicians have often tried to stoke fears and warn against taking any additional steps.

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Caveats & comments:
As well as all the usual caveats, the point to stress here is that escalation management is only one aspect of the decision making that likely informs Western aid levels. Politics, economics, and domestic fears and sentiments are other (non-exhaustive) examples

Relevant news/reading:

Russia warns over weapons:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-official-warns-west-of-global-catastrophe-for-arming-ukraine

Russia placing nuclear force into heightened readiness
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60547473

Russia warns over F-16s:
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-alexander-grushko-warns-west-f16-jets-ukraine-carries-enormous-risks-tass/

Russia warns over tanks:
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-warns-that-west-sending-ukraine-tanks-will-only-prolong-suffering-1772382

Putin issues further warnings - 2023
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-update-russias-elite-ukraine-war-major-speech-2023-02-21/

Medvedev warning of nuclear war:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-ally-medvedev-warns-nuclear-war-if-russia-defeated-ukraine-2023-01-19/

Russian warning that Leopards will be destroyed:
https://tass.com/politics/1567091

Russia - Leopards won't matter
https://tass.com/politics/1566995

Russia - Ukraine needs years to train on Leopards
https://tass.com/politics/1566983

Russian reporting on the weak points of Leopard and Abrams
https://tass.com/world/1567505

Russian expert on comparative value of Leopard vs T-62
https://iz.ru/1486940/2023-03-22/voennyi-istorik-rasskazal-ob-ispolzovanii-t-62m-v-ramkakh-spetcoperatcii

Reporting on Scott Ritter's tanks are suicidal for Ukraine article
https://warriormaven.com/russia-ukraine/russia-abrams-leopard-2-tanks

Russia placing nukes in Belarus:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/3/russia-to-put-nukes-in-belarus-near-nato-borders-envoy-says

Reporting on the 'drowned leopard' claim...
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/04/14/leopards-are-in-kherson-weather-and-mud-killed-one-russia/

Sanctions as something that will make Russia stronger
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-says-russia-will-emerge-stronger-sanctions-will-rebound-west-2022-03-10/



The featured report on the Patriot claims
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/patriot-station-batteries-destroyed-hypersonic

Tracker of German military aid to Ukraine:
https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992

Nadia Schadlow Incrementalism is throttling US support for Ukraine
https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/incrementalism-throttling-us-support-ukraine

Reporting on Dutch support for Ukrainian F-16 program
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-pm-says-talks-f-16s-ukraine-progressing-2023-05-04/

Scholtz saying Russia will not win in Ukraine
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/26/russia-will-not-win-the-war-in-ukraine-scholz

Reminder on potential act of energy related escalation in 2022
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62732835v

Japan pledging $5.5B in financial aid
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/02/20/national/japan-ukraine-fresh-aid/

RAND- Concepts and models of escalation (1980s)
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reports/2007/R3235.pdf

Michael Fitzsimmons - The false allure of escalation dominance
https://warontherocks.com/2017/11/false-allure-escalation-dominance/

Aaron Miles - Escalation dominance is America's oldest new Nuclear strategy
https://warontherocks.com/2018/09/escalation-dominance-in-americas-oldest-new-nuclear-strategy/

Norway planning multi-year support package
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3716658-norway-launching-eur-7b-fiveyear-defense-aid-program-for-ukraine.html

France reminds that NATO is a nuclear alliance
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-says-putin-needs-understand-nato-has-nuclear-weapons-2022-02-24/

Germany announcing extended military support
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-send-ukraine-27-billion-military-aid-package/a-65612028

Lauren Sukin - rattling the nuclear saber
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/04/rattling-nuclear-saber-what-russia-s-nuclear-threats-really-mean-pub-89689

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Escalation Management & Strategy In Ukraine
00:01:45 – What Am I Talking About
00:02:47 – Historical Escalation Management & Proxies
00:10:03 – Escalation Theory
00:21:49 – Red Lines & Escalation
00:39:34 – Russian Escalation Response
00:52:01 – Understanding Russia's Response
01:00:05 – Next Steps
01:08:31 – Conclusions
01:09:55 – Channel Update