We spend a lot of time on this channel focusing on how nations prepare for and fight wars - and comparatively little on the thinking that goes into bringing about their end - negotiated or otherwise.
In this episode I take a bit of a break to talk about the theory behind deciding when and how nations might chose to end a war, the various ways in which they might chose to do it - and all the reasons that pure rationality is a pretty imperfect framework for predicting the behaviour of nations.
Apologies for the late release, and I hope you all enjoy.
Caveats & Comments:
This video falls far short of presenting a comprehensive model for predicting war resolution, reflects personal opinion with an overarching goal of entertainment.
It, as always, does not constitute financial (or any other kind of) advice.
Further Reading & sources:
((Delayed 24 hours due to this release already being way overdue))
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — How Wars End
00:00:48 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:09 — Understanding War As "Negotiation"
00:04:53 — Demands & Coercion
00:09:38 — An Optimum Way Forward
00:14:49 — Identifying Key Inputs
00:29:19 — A Complicated Calculus
00:40:11 — Perception & Information Asymmetry
00:43:50 — So How Does It End?
00:51:23 — Paths To Peace
00:58:01 — Conclusions
00:58:54 — Channel Update
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