Russian Hybrid Warfare & Ukraine: Propaganda, cyberwarfare & hybrid war methods
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Description:
Often we think of war and peace as binary states - one is either at war or at peace.
But history is full of examples of the line between those two states being blurred, and in a modern world of nuclear weapons and globalised economic and military competition, that competitive state between war and peace has grown particularly prominent.
When Russia overtook Crimea in 2014 with its "little green men" the world got a high visibility view of what a hybrid war, combining information warfare, unconventional methods and conventional military force might look like. Today, I want to give an overview of hybrid war methods, their potential, and potential defences against them.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats/comments:
As flagged in this video - the focus on Russian Hybrid war should not be taken as a claim that other countries do not have hybrid war capabilities
The discussion of commentary and writings on hybrid warfare in this presentation are, out of necessity, incomplete
Examples of phenomena like amplification are included for illustrative purposes only and all content within this presentation is presented primarily for entertainment purposes
For the avoidance of doubt, I am making no claims as to the intent, actions, influence, sympathies, or otherwise of any individual person or persons in this presentation (though I may refer to reporting by others on those topics)
Images may be unrelated to the text and audio presented
Sources & Reading:
Clark - Russian Hybrid Warfare
https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Hybrid%20Warfare%20ISW%20Report%202020.pdf
Gearasimov - Presentation to the General Staff Academy 2018
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Army-Press-Online-Journal/documents/2019/Gerasimov-2019.pdf
Gerasimov - Vectors in the development of military strategy
http://csef.ru/en/oborona-i-bezopasnost/348/vektory-razvitiya-voennoj-strategii-8829
JDN 1-19
https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/jdn_jg/jdn1_19.pdf
Kofman - Russian Hybrid Warfare and other dark arts
https://warontherocks.com/2016/03/russian-hybrid-warfare-and-other-dark-arts/
Monaghan - The 'war' in Russia's Hybrid Warfare
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2987&context=parameters
Hofman - Conflict in the 21st Century: the rise of hybrid wars
https://www.potomacinstitute.org/images/stories/publications/potomac_hybridwar_0108.pdf
The "Firehose of Falsehood" propaganda model
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html
Tucker featured by RT
https://www.rt.com/news/568524-tucker-carlson-media-hate/
Derleth - Russian New Generation Warfighting
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/military-review/Archives/English/SO-20/Derleth-New-Generation-War-1.pdf
Russia Cyber Threat Overview - CISA
https://www.cisa.gov/russia
Russian military admits cyber war effort
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39062663
WHy Russian Cyber Dogs have mostly failed to bark
https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/why-cyber-dogs-have-mostly-failed-to-bark/
Russian denial of operations in Ukraine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/04/ukraine-crisis-russian-troops-crimea-john-kerry-kiev
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/03/04/285653335/putin-says-those-arent-russian-forces-in-crimea
Matisek - imagining the future of russian agression
https://mwi.usma.edu/from-little-green-men-to-little-blue-helmets-imagining-the-future-of-russian-aggression-and-what-to-do-about-it/
Russia on nuclear risk
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-risk-nuclear-conflict-highest-level-decades-2023-03-22/v
Little green men 2014
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26532154
The IRA, social media and political polarisation in the USA 2012-2018
https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1004&context=senatedocs
CSIS on Russia and Brexit
https://www.csis.org/blogs/brexit-bits-bobs-and-blogs/did-russia-influence-brexit
Russian military and security periodicals
https://www.eastview.com/resources/journals/russian-military-security-periodicals/
Bulgarian blasts
https://www.rferl.org/a/bulgaria-arms-depot-blasts-russia-ukraine-war-investigation/32322902.html
Wired reporting on cyberwar
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-hack-emails-asean-southeast-asia
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Open
00:01:37 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:03 — Sponsor: Ground News
00:04:09 — The Great Power Challenge
00:08:20 — Competition & Western Conception
00:13:51 — Russian Hybrid Warfare
00:22:13 — Cyberwarfare
00:26:09 — Proxy Use
00:29:43 — Ambiguity & Kinetic Operations
00:34:09 — Information Warfare
00:51:43 — Designing Hybrid Campaign
01:00:00 — Hybrid Warfare In Ua
01:08:21 — Countering Hybrid Warfare
01:12:40 — Conclusions
01:13:36 — Channel Update