The Death of Prigozhin -The crash & its implications for Wagner, Africa, Ukraine & Russia
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Description: Over the course of the war in Ukraine, Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin and Wagner Group became household names around the world. From their fighting at Bakhmut, to their standoffs with the Russian MoD leadership, to the dramatic march on Moscow followed by a public truce, the PMC and its leader often dominated the news.
But on 23 August, Prigozhin's story seems (so far) to have come to a very public end, when a jet carrying him and other Wagner members crashed in Russia with no reported survivors.
What does that mean for the PMC, Russia, Africa & the West? Those are questions I'll ask today.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Comments & Caveats:
All usual caveats and notes apply - and to those I'd add those I very specifically raise in the video around the quality of the evidence we currently have.
Reading and source notes:
TASS - Business jet crashes in Tver region
https://tass.com/emergencies/1664307
Utkin's sanctions
https://www.opensanctions.org/entities/Q45666735/
Russian Aviation Authority on the manifest:
https://t.me/favt_ru/1278
TASS - aircraft flight pattern
https://tass.com/emergencies/1664559
TASS - passengers
https://tass.com/emergencies/1664395
Putin on Prigozhin's death
https://www.watoday.com.au/world/europe/vladimir-putin-pays-tribute-to-wagner-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-20230825-p5dzba.html
Simon Rynn (published by RUSI) - Where next for Wagner Group in Africa
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/where-next-wagner-group-africa
Moscow Times on the crash:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/24/prigozhin-plane-crash-what-do-we-know-a82234
Reporting on Wagner handing over heavy weapons:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/13/russian-defence-ministry-says-wagner-handing-over-weapons
Poland moving troops to Belarus border
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/poland-troops-belarus-border-wagner-fighters-nato-tensions-rcna98974
Reporting on Wagner presence near Polish Border
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-30/wagner-mercenaries-in-belarus-move-closer-to-the-polish-border/102665826
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66211121
Mark Galeotti article
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/prigozhins-death-has-exposed-putins-weakness/
Putin orders Wagner fighters to sign pledge of allegiance
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-26/putin-orders-wagner-fighters-to-sign-oath-of-allegiance/102780680
Lavrov on Wagner operations in Africa
https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/26/russian-fm-sergei-lavrov-says-wagner-mercenaries-will-continue-to-operate-in-africa
TASS - Lukashenko says Prigozhin's family confirm that he's dead
https://tass.com/world/1665595
Prigozhin Africa Video:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/22/wagner-prigozhin-recruiting-post-russia-rebellion-video-africa-putin
Reporting on Russian airlines
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/15/russian-airlines-ask-employees-to-report-fewer-aircraft-malfunctions-proekt-a81140
UK House Foreign Affairs Committee - the Wagner Network
exposed https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/41073/documents/200048/default/
TASS - flight recorder
https://tass.com/society/1665625
Expert reactions published by Atlantic Council
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react/prigozhin-plane-crash-wagner-ukraine-war-africa/
US reporting on causes
https://abcnews.go.com/International/prigozhins-body-medical-examiners-office-kremlin-remains-silent/story?id=102525074
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-believes-missile-inside-russia-likely-shot-down-prigozhins-presumed-plane-us-2023-08-24/
Western reporting on the crash
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-25/yevgeny-prigozhin-crash-why-caution-is-needed/102773832
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/24/what-we-know-about-yevgeny-prigozhin-last-flight-a-visual-guide
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/24/is-yevgeny-prigozhin-really-dead-not-everyone-is-convinced
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66602757
Prigozhin in Belarus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/19/video-appears-to-show-wagner-chief-yevgeny-prigozhin-addressing-fighters-in-belarus
Prigozhin at the Africa summit
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66333403
Reporting on Niger coup
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/5/nigers-military-rulers-ask-for-help-from-russian-group-wagner
More video:
https://t.me/ENews112/15120
Video footage:
https://t.me/breakingmash/47183
Accompanying commentary:
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/08/24/a-bomb-or-a-missile
Timestamps:
00:00 — The Death Of Prigozhin
01:34 — What Am I Talking About?
03:56 — Background
12:58 — What Do We Know?
23:09 — Causes & Responsibility
32:40 — What Does This Mean: Ukraine & NATO
34:24 — What Does This Mean: Africa And Overseas Operations
43:26 — What Does This Mean: Wagner Group
47:24 — What Does This Mean: Russia
52:06 — Winners And Losers?
56:28 — Conclusion
57:15 — Channel Update