Path of Exile - Results of "The Patient" drop rate experiment - Don't farm Headhunter in Armory
220I ran a bit of an experiment (some gameplay video here: https://youtu.be/X-Ez1f7fhzw) farming the new divination card, The Patient, which is 1/512 of a Headhunter.
It drops in the Armory map.
After running 30 Armory maps chisel/alched with some cheap-ish scarabs I can confirm this isn't a great way to farm up a Headhunter.
I did come out considerably up on currency total but would have made much more if I'd spent that time running different content, at which point I'd have had no issue buying the 12 Patient cards that dropped.
If you are masochistic enough to farm a Headhunter doing this, expect to need 1280 maps under the same conditions I use here. Have fun trading for that many divination scarabs.
Statistical significance of 12 drop sample:
This gives us the following bounds:
0.2% that it's less that 1.5 per 10 maps
0.2% that it's more than 7.5 per 10 maps
(so 99.6% that the true drop rate is 1.5-7.5 per 10 maps)
5% that it's less than 2.5 per 10 maps
5% that it's more than 6 per 10 maps
(90% that the true drop rate is 2.5-6 per 10 maps)
25% that it's less than 3.5 per 10 maps
25% that it's more than 4.7 per 10 maps
(50% that it's 3.5-4.7 per 10 maps)
i've set up one of those silly merchandise stores. https://merch.streamelements.com/sirgog if you want to buy anything there. also accepting bribes (not real bribes) at https://streamelements.com/sirgog/tip . if you'd rather spend money on other stuff, that's cool too.
Other Videos By sirgog
Other Statistics
Path of Exile Statistics For sirgog
sirgog currently has 16,673,853 views spread across 1,429 videos for Path of Exile. His channel published over 17 days worth of content for the game, roughly 98.89% of Path of Exile content that sirgog has uploaded to YouTube.