Russia's attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure - does strategic bombing ever work?
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Description:
In the opening months of the war, Russia's formidable arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles was directed against a wide array of targets, from ground based air defences to military bases and infrastructure. For more information on that stage of the campaign, please refer to my previous video on the subject.
But since October, Russia has turned both these systems and its newly arrived Iranian drones on Ukraine's critical infrastructure instead, particularly its power grid, sending millions into rolling (or total) blackouts.
These attacks have all the hallmarks of strategic bombing, an attempt to destroy the ability and will of a nation to resist by striking targets behind the lines. It seems reasonable to assume that Russia's focus has thus turned from using its best weapons to destroy military units, to coercing the population and Government of Ukraine to surrender.
That is not a new idea, and in this episode I examine the nature of the new Russian campaign, discuss historical strategic bombing campaigns and their outcomes, and try to build a better understanding of these attacks and what they might achieve.
Caveats:
Any attempt to discern exactly what Russia's intention is with these strikes is obviously limited by the fact that information on decision making in the Russian Government is extremely limited. This video is based on attempting to divine their motivation based on their actions.
I also want to stress that announcements by all parties regarding these acts should be scrutinised closely - including all discussion of damage or interception rates.
estimates on production rates and stockpiles is subject to wide error margins.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Sources:
United States Strategic Bombing Survey - summary reports
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/AUPress/Books/B_0020_SPANGRUD_STRATEGIC_BOMBING_SURVEYS.pdf
RUSI - Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022
Russia declaring various attacks illegal/terrorism
https://tass.com/politics/1520069
https://tass.com/politics/1544997
https://tass.com/russia/1529537
https://www.euronews.com/2022/12/06/fire-at-russian-airport-labelled-as-terrorist-attack-by-moscow
Coverage of civilians facing hardship (for illustrative purposes)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/09/mykolaiv-water-infrastructure-ukarine-war/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/07/ukraine-is-on-the-edge-of-a-complete-blackout/
Energy support to Ukraine (for illustrative purposes)
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-will-give-ukraine-200-transformers-40-heavy-generators-to-support-energy-sector
https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-/1410869/finland-supports-energy-sector-in-ukraine
Credit to Russia Media Monitor for their monitoring of Russian state TV (so I don't have to)
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — OPENING WORDS
00:01:46 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT?
00:02:33 — SPONSOR: MORNING BREW
00:03:38 — SOURCING
00:04:45 — STRATEGIC BOMBING 101
00:04:51 — What Is Strategic Bombing?
00:05:35 — Initial Experiments
00:06:02 — WWII
00:07:17 — From Pyongyang to Linebacker
00:08:07 — "Precission" Stretegic Bombing?
00:08:43 — Russian Strategic Bombers
00:09:39 — RUSSIAN CAMPAIGN SO FAR
00:09:43 — The Early Missile Campaign
00:12:21 — Targeting Switch
00:13:39 — For What Purpose?
00:15:54 — Why Energy?
00:19:06 — November-December
00:20:42 — The Russian Defence
00:22:18 — The Russian Standard (Crimean Bridge)
00:23:01 — The Russian Standard I (Attacks on Ships in Sevastopol)
00:23:49 — The Russian Standard (Drone Attack)
00:24:53 — Way Forward
00:25:40 — DOES IT DESTROY INDUSTRIAL POTENTIAL
00:26:01 — Paralysing Production
00:27:23 — The Oil Story
00:28:48 — The Leuna Saga
00:29:49 — Persistence and Precision
00:30:51 — The Ukraine Problem
00:31:37 — DOES IT DESTROY MILITARY POTENTIAL?
00:31:51 — Mobility & Communications
00:34:15 — The Cost of Defence
00:35:26 — Total Impact
00:36:38 — DOES IT BREAK MORALE?
00:37:08 — Meet Giulio Douhet
00:38:29 — USSBS Findings
00:40:26 — Korea & Vietnam
00:42:04 — Ukrainian Morale
00:44:19 — SUSTAINABILITY
00:44:33 — "Russia is Running out of Missiles"
00:48:31 — Sustaining the Offensive
00:50:48 — Sustaining Air Defence
00:51:45 — The Supply Challenge
00:53:28 — Critical Infrastructure
00:55:12 — ADAPTATION
00:55:26 — The Straight Line Trap
00:56:31 — Target Adaptation
00:57:47 — System Adaptation
00:59:00 — Social Adaptation
01:01:57 — WHAT NEXT?
01:02:04 — A Supply Race
01:02:47 — Adaptation
01:03:54 — Counterstrike Potential
01:05:17 — BUT IN THE END...
01:07:39 — Suffering, not victory
01:09:46 — CONCLUSIONS
01:11:52 — CHANNEL UPDATE