Defence Strategy: The Baltic States - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania & NATO's Eastern Flank
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Designing a military can be hard. Designing a military when your primary adversary is Russia is harder...and doing it with a defence budget that could fit within the scope of a single cost overrun on a Pentagon project is something else entirely.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are commonly referred to as the Baltic States, from 2004 until Finland's accession to the organisation, sat relatively isolated on the Alliance's Eastern flank.
Today, we look at how these states perceive their environment, design their forces to counter the perceived threat - and why they have been some of the strongest advocates in both the EU and NATO for extensive support for Ukraine and a decisive defeat for the Russian Federation..
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
At one point I quote a source saying Estonia has 56 howitzers, the correct total of 18 and 36 is 54
Readings and Sources (incomplete, to be filled out):
Unless otherwise noted, platform and personnel figures are usually as per Military Balance 2024
Reference for corruption perception index data is transparency international, e.g.:
https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/estonia
The State Defence Concept of Latvia 2023
https://www.mod.gov.lv/sites/mod/files/document/The%20State%20Defence%20Concept%202023-2027.pdf
Estonia Defence Forces Annual Report 2022
https://issuu.com/sodur/docs/annual_report_22_issuu
Estonian Ministry of Defence - Setting Transatlantic Defence up for Success: A military strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's Defeat
https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf
Perun - Defence strategy for small nations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVqGEtPj0M0
CRS: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania: Background and U.S.-Baltic Relations
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46139
Shiapak & Johnson - Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1253.html
Jonathan Masters - How NATO will change if Finland and Sweden become members
https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/how-nato-will-change-if-finland-and-sweden-become-members
Reporting on Lithuania's defence spending plans
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lithuania-pledges-spend-least-3-gdp-defence-2024-03-21/
Estonia's foreign minister warns the Baltics have 3-4 years to prepare for a Russian test of NATO
https://apnews.com/article/poland-estonia-russia-nato-putin-bf0bc50554182f9c9bd5ea9b1a5cf2ef
NATO navies hold Baltic Sea exercise
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_218241.htm?selectedLocale=en
Henri Vanhanen - NATO and Northern Europe: No Longer the Forgotten Flank
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/19/nato-and-northern-europe-no-longer-forgotten-flank-pub-91297
Featured Reuters report on Baltics seeking more NATO presence
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/baltic-states-want-more-nato-they-wont-get-all-they-seek-2022-06-15/
Featured report on Danish artillery donations
https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-to-donate-all-its-artillery-to-ukraine-says-pm/
Reporting on Estonian artillery donations
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/01/24/estonia-sending-howitzers-ukraine/
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-artillery-zaporizhzhya-155mm-howitzer-estonia-american/32199208.html
Baltic and Polish leaders visiting Ukraine April 2022
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-poland-president/visiting-kyiv-leaders-of-poland-and-baltic-states-condemn-russia-idUKKCN2M50GC/
https://www.president.pl/news/presidents-of-poland-baltic-states-visit-kyiv,52353
Source of image used for slide on Estonia's concerns about protracted Russian occupation
https://swarajyamag.com/world/estonia-pm-kaja-kallas-estonia-would-be-wiped-from-map-under-existing-nato-security-plan-for-baltic-states
Featured article on Czech-led ammunition supply efforts
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/03/20/czech-led-bulk-ammunition-buy-for-ukraine-picks-up-steam/
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:58 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:22 — History
00:13:57 — Strategic Position
00:20:06 — Perceived Threats & Objectives
00:34:10 — Armed Forces & Approach
00:43:14 — Collective Defence
00:54:33 — Finland & Closing The Door On The Baltic Option
00:58:25 — The Baltic States And Ukraine
01:04:19 — Channel Update