Fire Emblem: Binding Blade Hard Mode ETC Challenge Chapter 4

Channel:

Palla Emblem

Subscribers:

1,680

Published on August 29, 2021 7:51:49 PM ● Video Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b5bICFnL3o

Game:

Fire Emblem: The Binding Blade (2002)

Duration: 13:09

1,429 views

50

Expected Turn Count: 10.465 LTC 8(1.5% Chance). Note: This video is a 9 Turn clear as the 8 turn is too unreliable.

The goal of the ETC Challenge is to create strategies to lower the expected turn count of a clear. Expected turn count is calculated by finding the average number of turns it would take (Including resets) to clear a map. In a roundabout way the goal is to create both a reliable and fast clear.

Patches used:
Pessimistic Average Growths Patch. Basically ensures units only level stats when there is a 90% chance cumulatively that they would have obtained that stat by their current level. https://feuniverse.us/t/pessimistic-average-growths-patches/5134True RNG patch. RNG advances based on time so it can't be manipulated. (Sorry I forgot where I got this.)

Note: It's too difficult to accurately calculate CoS for this clear due to the amount of variation so simulations were used for turns 2 and 3.

Turn 1:
Last Cav checked needs to be 2RKO'd by Marcus (90%) or RESET
If at least one cav rolls 7 speed in the first group (45%) then Marcus should use an Iron Axe. Otherwise use a Silver Lance.

Turn 2:
The Nomad and at least one Cavalier need to die this turn. If Roy Crit(10%) then Lugh can assist. If one cav rolled 9+ speed then prioritize that cav. If both or no cavs rolled 9+ speed then prioritize lower cav. If a 9+ speed cav is left alive then Chad and Lance need to protect Wolt. If Either the nomad or both cavs are left alive
RESET.Chance of Reset: 22.2%

Turn 3:
Marcus needs to kill one of the two cavs over 2 turns he has 77 hit on the lance cav and 87 hit on the sword cav. Nomad will always target Merlinus so finish off third cav.

Turn 4:
If Marcus failed to kill either cav he needs to kill the sword cav this turn. If he fails RESET. Marcus also has a 1.3% chance of dying on EP if he has to attack and was hit too much. If the cav that attacked Lugh rolled 10 speed then have Deke bait instead.
Chance of Reset: 0.5%

Turn 6:
If checked cav has 10 speed then Alen needs to equip a lance.

Turn 7:
If Marcus can't double with Iron Blade then have him use the Iron Axe instead. If Rutger can ORKO the archer cleanly then have him attack from below. Otherwise have him attack from the right.

Turn 8-11:
Marcus faces Erik with 62 hit. He needs to be constantly healed up so Erik continues to use the Steel Sword. Rutger can clean up archers. Erik kill should be prioritized on Rutger.

Clear Chance:
Turn 8: 1.5% (Marcus must crit)
Turn 9: 24.7%
Turn 10: 38.6%
Turn 11: 2.4%
Turn 12+: 0.1%

Clear can theoretically continue until around turns 14-20 depending on hit rates. Erik should die a majority of the time way before that. Rutger's stats are kinda weird. I'm not sure if I should edit them to be within 90% or just what's most likely.

Other Statistics